One big thing:
Utah’s population is projected to surge from 3.6 million to 5.6 million over the next 40 years—equivalent to adding another Idaho—according to new long-term planning projections from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
Why it matters:
This growth will reshape Utah’s economy, workforce, and communities, with major implications for housing, healthcare, and infrastructure planning.
- The big picture: “Utah’s growth over the next 40 years is characterized by record levels of net in-migration, declining natural change, an aging population, and continuing urbanization,” said Natalie Gochnour, director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
By the numbers:
- 1.2 million jobs will be added, led by healthcare, professional services, finance, and construction
- Median age rises from 33 to over 45, with nearly one in four Utahns age 65 or older
- Household size shrinks from 3.0 to 2.3 people per household
- Centenarians increase from fewer than 400 to more than 12,000
Where growth happens:
Wasatch, Utah, Washington, Tooele, Morgan, and Iron counties lead projected growth rates. Salt Lake County remains the economic anchor, adding approximately 600,000 jobs on its own.
The bottom line:
“Our long-term planning projections provide a clear, objective foundation for understanding Utah’s most likely path,” Gochnour said. “We offer this work as an honest broker of data—helping leaders prepare for the opportunities and challenges ahead.”
What’s next:
State agencies and community leaders can use these projections to plan for Utah’s demographic and economic transformation over the coming decades.
Learn more: gardner.utah.edu
